Here is the first match commentary of my MODO 3.0 video-making career, originally posted November 15, 2010.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Theory: Trepanation Blade, a crash-course in probability
(or, how fucking complicated is Magic, eh?)
In this article I will answer the question of what the average damage [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is expected to do is, and all that fun stuff. I'm also going to talk about other stuff that is more interesting about the card than just the average damage.
Suppose that an opponent started the game with 40 cards including 17 lands. By the time we're swinging with [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] we're looking at, at most, 28 cards in his deck and probably around 12 lands remaining (on average he'll draw 5.1 lands in the first 12 cards).
So we swing. Here's what happens:
In this article I will answer the question of what the average damage [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is expected to do is, and all that fun stuff. I'm also going to talk about other stuff that is more interesting about the card than just the average damage.
Suppose that an opponent started the game with 40 cards including 17 lands. By the time we're swinging with [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] we're looking at, at most, 28 cards in his deck and probably around 12 lands remaining (on average he'll draw 5.1 lands in the first 12 cards).
So we swing. Here's what happens:
I've made a spreadsheet which you can download from Google docs and see all the data for any number of cards in deck and lands in deck between 0 and 60 just by editing those two numbers. It shows the expected number of cards milled, the probability of each number of cards milled, the number of spells that will be left in the deck. You can find the spreadsheet here. If it doesn't play well with your own excel software you can always upload it into google docs again on your own google docs account and play with it there.
The thing that I think is most important about this card (which I don't consider exciting or even terribly playable) is that it's variable. Because of this it's hard to simply analyze it using its average effect. If your opponent is on seven life and you have [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] on a two power creature you need to know how often you activate for five or more, not what your average value on one activation is. Cards like this create a lot of variance in the game, but if you understand the odds you can use them to work out the best play, weighing, say, the chance of activating for five or more against the chance of topdecking one of three outs if you hold back to chump block. Once you know the numbers it's a simple math equation.
The coolest thing? [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is pretty awful, but in a pinch you could use this spreadsheet for other cards with similar effects like [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] and [card]Goblin Charbelcher[/card]. For example, with [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] simply replace the number of lands in your deck with the number of the card you're searching for and you'll see all the possible numbers of cards you could reveal before finding it and how likely this will be. Enjoy!
The thing that I think is most important about this card (which I don't consider exciting or even terribly playable) is that it's variable. Because of this it's hard to simply analyze it using its average effect. If your opponent is on seven life and you have [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] on a two power creature you need to know how often you activate for five or more, not what your average value on one activation is. Cards like this create a lot of variance in the game, but if you understand the odds you can use them to work out the best play, weighing, say, the chance of activating for five or more against the chance of topdecking one of three outs if you hold back to chump block. Once you know the numbers it's a simple math equation.
The coolest thing? [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is pretty awful, but in a pinch you could use this spreadsheet for other cards with similar effects like [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] and [card]Goblin Charbelcher[/card]. For example, with [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] simply replace the number of lands in your deck with the number of the card you're searching for and you'll see all the possible numbers of cards you could reveal before finding it and how likely this will be. Enjoy!
The spreadsheet:
Set up for a fairly standard [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] situation:
PS Activating this card does not, on average, change the chance that your opponent will draw a land/non-land next turn at all.
MOCS 12 Coverage
The Magic: Online Championship Series qualify one player for Worlds and pay out a great amount of online prizes alongside this. The twelfth and final MOCS of the year was held last weekend and featured the Standard format, which will be relevant again this weekend for the Player of the Year tournament. To give you an idea of what to expect in the Player of the Year I broke down all the decks in the top 8 and provided commentary on all of their games. I was lucky enough to be joined by Jarvis Yu (Samwise_Geegee on MODO) for the majority of the commentary and analysis.
This post contains a playlist of all eleven videos we produced. You can also go to posts for individual matches if you would rather just see games and analysis of one particular player's deck. The individual match posts also contain player decklists.
Here is a link to the Wizards coverage of the tournament, which contains the top 8 bracket, final standings, and the top 32 decklists.
This post contains a playlist of all eleven videos we produced. You can also go to posts for individual matches if you would rather just see games and analysis of one particular player's deck. The individual match posts also contain player decklists.
Here is a link to the Wizards coverage of the tournament, which contains the top 8 bracket, final standings, and the top 32 decklists.
MOCS 12: Finals Gainsay vs sakurai
Gainsay - UW Control
[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge
1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements
Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]
sakurai - Splinter Twin
[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite
3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image
3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]
MOCS 12: Semifinals Gainsay vs haiSOOOOdesu
Gainsay - UW Control
[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge
1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements
Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]
haiSOOOOdesu - UW Control
[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Emeria Angel
1 Phantasmal Image
4 Squadron Hawk
1 Sun Titan
2 Gideon Jura
4 Jace Beleren
2 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Into the Roil
4 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
5 Island
3 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge
Sideboard:
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Mental Misstep
1 Negate
1 Phantasmal Image
1 Sun Titan
1 Timely Reinforcements
3 Torpor Orb[/deck]
MOCS 12: Semifinals sakurai vs Jhun
sakurai - Splinter Twin
[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite
3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image
3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]
Jhun - Monogreen
[deck]21 Forest
2 Tectonic Edge
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Dungrove Elder
3 Kozilek's Predator
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Nest Invader
3 Obstinate Baloth
2 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Overwhelming Stampede
Sideboard:
3 Acidic Slime
1 Beast Within
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
3 Nature's Claim
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Sword of Body and Mind
2 Thrun, the Last Troll[/deck]
MOCS 12: Quarterfinals haiSOOOOdesu vs mirakurufait
haiSOOOOdesu - UW Control
[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Emeria Angel
1 Phantasmal Image
4 Squadron Hawk
1 Sun Titan
2 Gideon Jura
4 Jace Beleren
2 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Into the Roil
4 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
5 Island
3 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge
Sideboard:
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Mental Misstep
1 Negate
1 Phantasmal Image
1 Sun Titan
1 Timely Reinforcements
3 Torpor Orb[/deck]
mirakurufait - UW Control
[deck]2 Gideon Jura
2 Jace Beleren
1 Karn Liberated
1 Venser, the Sojourner
2 Condemn
4 Day of Judgment
2 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Ratchet Bomb
4 Spreading Seas
2 Torpor Orb
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
2 Sejiri Refuge
4 Tectonic Edge
Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Divine Offering
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
2 Flashfreeze
1 Jace Beleren
1 Psychic Barrier
1 Revoke Existence
1 Stoic Rebuttal
2 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins
1 Wurmcoil Engine[/deck]
MOCS 12: Quarterfinals sakurai vs kbr
sakurai - Splinter Twin
[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite
3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image
3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]
kbr - Pyromancer Ascension
[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx
4 Burst Lightning
2 Call to Mind
2 Foresee
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Into the Roil
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
1 Pyroclasm
4 Pyromancer Ascension
3 Halimar Depths
7 Island
1 Misty Rainforest
7 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
Sideboard:
2 Azure Mage
1 Consecrated Sphinx
2 Flashfreeze
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm
3 Spellskite
1 Sphinx of Jwar Isle
1 Torpor Orb[/deck]
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
Sunday, September 25, 2011
MOCS 12: Quarterfinals Gainsay vs millennium9999
Gainsay - UW Control
[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge
1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements
Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]
millennium9999 - Monogreen
[deck]20 Forest
4 Misty Rainforest
24 lands
1 Acidic Slime
4 Dungrove Elder
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
2 Obstinate Baloth
3 Sylvan Ranger
3 Thrun, the Last Troll
3 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
2 Green Sun's Zenith
3 Overwhelming Stampede
2 Sword of War and Peace
Sideboard
3 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
4 Nature's Claim
2 Obstinate Baloth
4 Torpor Orb[/deck]
MOCS 12: Quarterfinals Jhun vs fugi1
Jhun - Monogreen
[deck]21 Forest
2 Tectonic Edge
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Dungrove Elder
3 Kozilek's Predator
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Nest Invader
3 Obstinate Baloth
2 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Overwhelming Stampede
Sideboard:
3 Acidic Slime
1 Beast Within
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
3 Nature's Claim
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Sword of Body and Mind
2 Thrun, the Last Troll[/deck]
fugi1 - Splinter Twin
[deck]3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
4 Dispel
2 Into the Roil
2 Mental Misstep
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
3 Twisted Image
Sideboard:
2 Dragonmaster Outcast
3 Forked Bolt
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
1 Spell Pierce
2 Steel Sabotage[/deck]
Saturday, September 24, 2011
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