Friday, December 2, 2011

Theory: Burning Vengeance

Since Innistrad “Block” Constructed became a thing I’ve recorded 35 MODO matches (six dailies and a premier event) piloting Burning Vengeance with a 77% winrate. You can see them all at my blog (hey guys that is here!). That includes 2-1 against monored, 1-0 against RW (not a great matchup, but the deck is a relatively recent one), 3-2 against GW, 3-2 against GBR, and 3-3 against URg “venganceless vengeance”, which has gone completely out of style, and a 16-0 record against other decks including a somewhat respectable 100% winrate over the course of nine mirror matches.

I have various things to say, and now I am going to say them. By typing. How novel. I am grumpy, deal with it.

First, it is embarrassing to humanity that after a year of getting beaten up by Squadron Hawk people didn’t instantly realize that Doomed Traveler was a gigantic bomb. I am among those people.

Now, Burning Vengeance. I am going to specifically address people who play this deck horribly, and people who play against this deck horribly. I am one of those people, but I do it a little less horribly than most. You may or may not be one of those people. If you aren’t it is probably because you are not trying.

The first thing to realize about Burning Vengeance is that it’s counterburn. It is not Burning Vengeance. Burning Vengeance is a card which deals two damage to things sometimes, counterburn is an archetype that has been pillaging villages by exploiting tiny amounts of marginal card advantage since approximately 1046 CE. All the card Burning Vengeance does is give the deck great inevitability and another good source of advantage.

This means a few things. The first thing it means is that if you are playing an aggro deck and putting Naturalize effects in your deck you are literally taking aggressive threats out of your aggro deck in order to try to play control against counterburn. Nice. Special exception for Silverchase Fox of course, what a giant hero.

If you are UG graveyard and you are putting Naturalize effects in your deck you’re not looking so hot either. Burning Vengeance does not do a great job of killing 14/14 creatures or millions of spiders. Congratulations on burning a draw step to defend your Avacyn’s Pilgrim from T4 onwards though. Oh it died to Geistflame.

The only deck that can convincingly play Naturalize effects against Burning Vengeance is Burning Vengeance. This is because Burning Vengeance is the only deck in this format that has any chance at all of outperforming Burning Vengeance in a late game. I would say it has a 50-50 shot.

In fact, the fact that both players have four Snapcasters and infinity card draw and tap out every turn means that with a couple of Naturalizes in the deck Burning Vengeance never ever stays on the table. This means you should board out your Burning Vengeances in the mirror. It does not mean you should board in Witchbane Orb, oh my god what are you thinking.

A second thing this means is that Burning Vengeance, which is actually counterburn, can kill you however the fuck it wants. It is the ultimate greifer deck. If I want I can board in Runic Repetition, Memory’s Journey, and Lost in the Mist, and counter every spell you cast until you deck yourself with your draw step. I can hit you ten times with a Snapcaster Mage. If you gain 120 life with Gnaw to the Bone I can hit you sixty times with a Snapcaster Mage. I can play one copy of Garruk and deal 90 damage to you with it in ten turns. Ninety. For four mana. I can deck you with Nephalia Drownyard while watching the Colbert Report.

If you are playing Burning Vengeance and you do not have diverse win conditions available to your deck you are sort of missing the point. Drownyard is almost free, Garruk is a straight up improvement, Memory’s Journey/Runic Repetition is almost never actually better than Memory’s Journey x2 but it is way cuter and everybody likes cute things.
If you are playing against Burning Vengeance and you are boarding in Witchbane Orbs and Naturalizes with no way to actually keep up in the lategame that you are attempting to set up by bringing in those cards you do not deserve the second half of this conditional. Enjoy losing games of Magic with your groundbreaking strategy.

I used to think Devil’s Play was really good too. It’s not. Take them out of your deck and enjoy winning more.



Yes, I managed to win that game anyway, then I put good cards in my deck.

Good cards in Burning Vengeance are cards which perform well for their manacost, because, being counterburn, the entire deck is about leveraging mana every turn to create and nurture a marginal advantage which eventually becomes absolutely insurmountable. These cards include Geistflame (x4) and Silent Departure (x4). They do not include Devil’s Play (x1???????? x0?... yeah, that).

Hit every land drop. Tap out to hit your land drop. Let your opponent hit you to one life instead of casting Blasphemous Act to hit your land drop. Eventually you will become a lot better at Magic and be able to correctly identify spots where it is not correct to cast Desperate Ravings frantically trying to play that precious precious land. Also take Blasphemous Act out of your deck.

This is counterburn, you trade 0.9 for 1 with all their threats. If Blasphemous Act costs less than eight you are losing. Probably you are losing because your deck is full of Blasphemous Acts and Devil’s Plays. The one time you want Blasphemous Act is when they have Geist-Honored Monk. Rolling Temblor is passable, but pretty bad too.

Don’t put Geist of Saint Traft in your deck. As Burning Vengeance or against it. Most of the times I see it getting boarded in as “tech” it’s into a manabase which casts it turn nine on average and the person boarding it in took out all their creature removal so it trades with a Snapcaster Mage. Don’t board in Geist and leave in your creature removal either, by the way.

Common Misconceptions:

“Burning Vengeance is the most fragile deck in the format” (boards in Naturalize and Witchbane Orb)
- No.
- I cast Garruk and you die.

“All you have to do is get out of Devil’s Play range”
- No.
- I cast Garruk and you die.

“Purify the Grave is good against you”
- It would be if you were not white red aggro. Like, maybe if you could put cards in your yard, or draw multiple cards per turn.
- “It removes two of your cards from your graveyard!”
- Uh… it removes one of your cards from your hand.
- “You cannot flashback cards so you OW MY FACE ONE HUNDRED WOOOOOLVES”.

The most important thing to realize:

To beat Burning Vengeance you simply don’t let it get to the lategame. This means you absolutely do not put Naturalize in your deck. Why would you want to take it to the lategame. Wr aggro preboard is the most fearsome matchup for Burning Vengeance, although it improves dramatically postboard because they make their deck much worse. Deal damage with creatures, then burn once they stabilize. Simple. All the other matchups are between 60 and 99% in Burning Vengeance’s favor (I don’t want to say UG is 100% in Burning Vengeance’s favor because it seems unrealistic but it actually is, so).

The next important thing to realize:

Burning Vengeance is very very hard to play correctly. If you’re not willing to think really hard and be extremely wrong a lot and fight correctly for tiny tiny advantages you are going to lose a lot to yourself. Not to yourself as in to your deck, to yourself as in to yourself. The person piloting the deck. If you want to have the highest possible winrate in this format get really good at magic, play counterburn (you barely even need to put Burning Vengeance in the deck, to be honest), and don’t get paired against Wr very often.

P.S. Wr is still 40%+ for you if you play well. Good luck!

P.P.S.

4 Hinterland Harbor
4 Sulfur Falls
4 Silent Departure
1 Woodland Cemetery
1 Nephalia Drownyard
7 Mountain
5 Island
4 Shimmering Grotto

2 Think Twice
2 Think Twice
2 Rolling Temblor
1 Garruk Relentless
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Desperate Ravings
1 Harvest Pyre
4 Geistflame
2 Forbidden Alchemy
4 Burning Vengeance
4 Dissipate

Sideboard
1 Olivia Voldaren
3 Memory's Journey
1 Witchbane Orb
2 Garruk Relentless
1 Rolling Temblor
2 Blasphemous Act
3 Tree of Redemption
2 Naturalize

P.P.P.S. Don’t put Olivia main; half of the deck is blanking their creature removal.

P.P.P.P.S. I'm not going to add an entire sideboarding guide, but basically you want to lose Alchemy and Dissipate against fast decks in favor of removal. Against GW you want Olivia and against Wr you want Tree (and maaaaaybe Witchbane Orb, it might not be right at all). Against control decks you usually want to drop Geistflame before Silent Departure (even against UG, since you board into 3 Rolling Temblors to kill their mana dorks), and you want to bring in Garruk, Memory's Journey if they use their graveyard a ton, and Olivia if they cannot kill her. Naturalize comes in x2 for the mirror and x1 for decks which are going to board in Witchbane Orb and Nevermore unless you're okay with just killing them with Snapcasters and Garruk, which is fine too.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Premier Event #12: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #11: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #10: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #9: ISD 64-man Draft

Draft #29: ISD UW

Premier Event #8: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #7: ISD 64-man Draft

Draft #28: ISD UR

Premier Event #6: ISD 64-man Draft

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Draft #26: ISD UB

Premier Event #4: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #3: ISD 64-man Draft

Premier Event #2: ISD 64-man Draft

Draft #25: ISD GWr

Draft #24: ISD UW

Draft #23: ISD UBr

Draft #22: ISD GW

Theory: Delver of Secrets

The top chart shows the probability that [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] will have flipped each turn assuming you play it turn one in Limited given a certain number of instants/sorceries in your deck shown in the bar at top. The second chart shows the expected damage it will do with that many instants/sorceries as compared to [card]Moon Heron[/card]. In actuality [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] outperforms [card]Moon Heron[/card] in a few other ways - it costs U rather than 3U, can attack as a 1/1 or block as a 1/1, is human for interactions with Equipment and [card]Moonmist[/card] (though [card]Moonmist[/card] can be a downside as well with the flipped side still being human), and occasionally has a looter-esque interaction with [card]Deranged Assistant[/card]. On the other hand if [card]Delver of Secrets[/card] doesn't get played on turn one it will not perform as favorably.


Friday, October 21, 2011

Theory: ISD Creatures by the Numbers

When a graph represents playability this is a rating I have given to the card between zero and one to represent its value in limited. My ratings are heavily influenced by those of channelfireball.com, but differ in many ways to represent my personal evaluation of the format after ten drafts. I've included a few of my own conclusions from this analysis below the graphs.

Feel free to download the spreadsheet which contains my ratings and the graphs pictured here. If you wish to change the ratings of the cards to reflect your own opinions the graphs will update automatically as you do so.

For power/toughness of double-faced cards I simply approximated effect by averaging the sides. For [card]Lumberknot[/card] I think I just said it was a 3/3.












My thoughts:

1) Wow, Black creatures really suck.
2) Red and Blue often feel like a natural pairing in draft, but drafting them together will leave you dangerously short of two-drops. Other than make me not want to draft UR this makes me do two things. Firstly, this makes me value [card]Deranged Assistant[/card] and [card]Stitcher's Apprentice[/card] even higher than I was before. Secondly, it makes me less excited about cards like [card]Harvest Pyre[/card] and [card]Brimstone Volley[/card] in this color combination, as they fail to help your curve and I feel will often need to be directed at a two drop after already taking a swing or two from it.
3) I guess mostly it looks like I don't want to draft UR.
4) Green and White come out of the gates smashing face, and Green has an impressive late-game as well. I've found Green to be a very solid pairing with Blue, and the graphs support this hypothesis as the Green and Blue complement each other, each filling out weak spots in the others' curve. I've also found Blue and White to work well together in a more aggressive role; again this makes sense looking at the graphs. Green and White put together will also complement each other very well, you have a choice between drafting a very aggressive low-curve deck, and drafting a full curve filling in Green's 3-slot with White cards and repairing White's top-end with Green cards.
5) [card]Gallows Warden[/card] seems like he will almost never have a deck I want to put him in. As far as what each color wants Blue and White would be well-served if they got to do a little switcheroo and White got [card]Battleground Geist[/card] instead to complement its beaters and first strike spirit.
6) There is really close to no support for a [card]Bloodcrazed Neonate[/card] deck. This makes me sad. Maybe if you get insane depth in Green or White you could pair it with a little Red and play a slith or two. The problem is that almost all of the quality creatures in red are so expensive.
7) The graphs should've stopped at six on the x-axis. My thoughts probably should have stopped at six too.

Overall I think the most sensible archetypes based on creature-support in the format are GW aggro, GR midrange, GU control, and WU aggro. Also, while I don't have a whole lot of desire to be playing Black cards here, it should be noted that the color's mediocre creatures actually fill a fairly good curve on their own, and as such if it's open mono-Black may be the easiest monocolored deck to build a good curve for while drafting.

Sunday, October 16, 2011

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Tools: Draft Analysis Tool











You can download all the spreadsheets including 30 of my drafts to get the modifiers going from this link

Friday, October 7, 2011

Tools: Draft Analysis Spreadsheet



So I made this really cool spreadsheet. You import your MODO draft record into it and it tells you cool things. I'll be adding a lot more features (this is a one-day-old project), but you can download what I have so far. This is the blank draft spreadsheet, this is my M12 power rankings and other info that you'll want to import, and this is a sample spreadsheet set up for one of the drafts I just did.

Daily #12: Pauper Monored Storm

[deck]4 Forgotten Cave 4 Geothermal Crevice 4 Smoldering Crater 6 Mountain

4 Needle Drop 4 Manamorphose 4 Empty the Warrens 4 Crimson Wisps 4 Gitaxian Probe 4 Kiln Fiend 4 Chain Lightning 3 Lava Dart 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Staggershock 3 Sparksmith

Sideboard 4 Rite of Flame 3 Serrated Arrows 2 Gorilla Shaman 3 Apostle's Blessing 3 Seismic Shudder[/deck]

Theory: Draft Analysis Teaser

Headed to bed, but wanted to drop some spreadsheet beauty on you guys. Still a work in progress. This is all generated from a list of cards in the set that I made and the draft output from Magic: Online.

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Theory: Draft Value by Elo with Random Pairings

So the last spreadsheet I made only worked for one of the 315 possible ways that eight players could be paired for a single-elimination 8-man tournament. This one accounts for all possible pairings. You can even compare what the value was for each player with random pairings to what it was with the actual pairings that were announced.



Here's a couple of the nuts and bolts going on behind the scenes:





You can download the spreadsheet here. Unfortunately it isn't compatible with Google Docs.

Theory: Making Mistakes

I just read a great article in Wired, which you can read here. The basic idea is this:
A new study, forthcoming in Psychological Science, and led by Jason Moser at Michigan State University, expands on this important concept. The question at the heart of the paper is simple: Why are some people so much more effective at learning from their mistakes? After all, everybody screws up. The important part is what happens next. Do we ignore the mistake, brushing it aside for the sake of our self-confidence? Or do we investigate the error, seeking to learn from the snafu?
Turns out that learning from your mistakes comes from your mind and your mindset. The longer you dwell on a mistake positively the more you will learn from it, and the more you think of your own capabilities as capable of growing through learning rather than as a set level of intelligence or aptitude the more you will learn further. The idea that you are working hard to succeed is much more valuable to learning than the idea that you are succeeding because you are smart; the latter idea actually discourages you from learning because you avoid taking risks to maintain the appearance of intelligence.

I want to add one thing to this article: Take risks! Make mistakes! The article talked in depth about how our responses to mistakes can help us learn, but didn't make any suggestions on how we could make them. Mistakes happen all the time, sure, but you can accelerate your learning greatly by putting yourself in situations where you're making them more and more. In Magic this could mean playing a deck or format that you're not used to, trying to build your own deck, and so on. If you're drafting with a friend and they tell you they don't think a card is a good pick but you disagree, probably the best thing you can do for yourself is take the card, play the card, and find out why it isn't as good as you thought it was. Get your friend to help. Any time you ever think something is a good idea in Magic but other people tell you it isn't just do it. If it is bad you'll find out why and know not to do it again, and if it isn't bad, well, you just found out something new about Magic, time to try to convince your friends.

Testing: Pauper Storm

Monday, October 3, 2011

Theory: Placing and Prize based on ELO Rating


Elo ratings are not a perfect measurement for something like this, especially as they're being abandoned by Wizards and are hidden online, but they are the best I can do and are still academically interesting.

The spreadsheet takes the ratings of eight players and, assuming certain pairings, gives the expected value of the tournament for various tournament payouts, or even your own custom one, which is currently set for a Premier Event Top 8. Because pairings are in an assumed order (which can be seen explained on the spreadsheet) the order of the players will change their expected values.

Google docs spreadsheet can be found here. It loses the conditional color formatting but is otherwise the same.

Excel spreadsheet can be downloaded from here. I haven't tested it in older versions of Excel. It should work in Open Office but without color formatting.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Blast from the Past: ProfaneCommies vs DoctorBodgapopolus

Here is the first match commentary of my MODO 3.0 video-making career, originally posted November 15, 2010.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Theory: Trepanation Blade, a crash-course in probability

(or, how fucking complicated is Magic, eh?)

In this article I will answer the question of what the average damage [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is expected to do is, and all that fun stuff. I'm also going to talk about other stuff that is more interesting about the card than just the average damage.

Suppose that an opponent started the game with 40 cards including 17 lands. By the time we're swinging with [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] we're looking at, at most, 28 cards in his deck and probably around 12 lands remaining (on average he'll draw 5.1 lands in the first 12 cards).

So we swing. Here's what happens:


I've made a spreadsheet which you can download from Google docs and see all the data for any number of cards in deck and lands in deck between 0 and 60 just by editing those two numbers. It shows the expected number of cards milled, the probability of each number of cards milled, the number of spells that will be left in the deck. You can find the spreadsheet here. If it doesn't play well with your own excel software you can always upload it into google docs again on your own google docs account and play with it there.

The thing that I think is most important about this card (which I don't consider exciting or even terribly playable) is that it's variable. Because of this it's hard to simply analyze it using its average effect. If your opponent is on seven life and you have [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] on a two power creature you need to know how often you activate for five or more, not what your average value on one activation is. Cards like this create a lot of variance in the game, but if you understand the odds you can use them to work out the best play, weighing, say, the chance of activating for five or more against the chance of topdecking one of three outs if you hold back to chump block. Once you know the numbers it's a simple math equation.

The coolest thing? [card]Trepanation Blade[/card] is pretty awful, but in a pinch you could use this spreadsheet for other cards with similar effects like [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] and [card]Goblin Charbelcher[/card]. For example, with [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] simply replace the number of lands in your deck with the number of the card you're searching for and you'll see all the possible numbers of cards you could reveal before finding it and how likely this will be. Enjoy!

The spreadsheet:


Set up for a fairly standard [card]Spoils of the Vault[/card] situation:


PS Activating this card does not, on average, change the chance that your opponent will draw a land/non-land next turn at all.

MOCS 12 Coverage

The Magic: Online Championship Series qualify one player for Worlds and pay out a great amount of online prizes alongside this. The twelfth and final MOCS of the year was held last weekend and featured the Standard format, which will be relevant again this weekend for the Player of the Year tournament. To give you an idea of what to expect in the Player of the Year I broke down all the decks in the top 8 and provided commentary on all of their games. I was lucky enough to be joined by Jarvis Yu (Samwise_Geegee on MODO) for the majority of the commentary and analysis.

This post contains a playlist of all eleven videos we produced. You can also go to posts for individual matches if you would rather just see games and analysis of one particular player's deck. The individual match posts also contain player decklists.

Here is a link to the Wizards coverage of the tournament, which contains the top 8 bracket, final standings, and the top 32 decklists.

MOCS 12: Finals Gainsay vs sakurai



Gainsay - UW Control

[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge

1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements

Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]


sakurai - Splinter Twin

[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite

3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image

3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]

MOCS 12: Semifinals Gainsay vs haiSOOOOdesu



Gainsay - UW Control

[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge

1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements

Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]


haiSOOOOdesu - UW Control

[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Emeria Angel
1 Phantasmal Image
4 Squadron Hawk
1 Sun Titan

2 Gideon Jura
4 Jace Beleren

2 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Into the Roil
4 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Timely Reinforcements

1 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
5 Island
3 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard:
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Mental Misstep
1 Negate
1 Phantasmal Image
1 Sun Titan
1 Timely Reinforcements
3 Torpor Orb[/deck]

MOCS 12: Semifinals sakurai vs Jhun



sakurai - Splinter Twin

[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite

3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image

3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]


Jhun - Monogreen

[deck]21 Forest
2 Tectonic Edge
4 Birds of Paradise

4 Dungrove Elder
3 Kozilek's Predator
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Nest Invader
3 Obstinate Baloth

2 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Overwhelming Stampede

Sideboard:
3 Acidic Slime
1 Beast Within
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
3 Nature's Claim
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Sword of Body and Mind
2 Thrun, the Last Troll[/deck]

MOCS 12: Quarterfinals haiSOOOOdesu vs mirakurufait



haiSOOOOdesu - UW Control

[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Emeria Angel
1 Phantasmal Image
4 Squadron Hawk
1 Sun Titan

2 Gideon Jura
4 Jace Beleren

2 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Into the Roil
4 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Timely Reinforcements

1 Arid Mesa
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
5 Island
3 Plains
1 Scalding Tarn
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard:
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
3 Kor Firewalker
1 Mental Misstep
1 Negate
1 Phantasmal Image
1 Sun Titan
1 Timely Reinforcements
3 Torpor Orb[/deck]

mirakurufait - UW Control

[deck]2 Gideon Jura
2 Jace Beleren
1 Karn Liberated
1 Venser, the Sojourner

2 Condemn
4 Day of Judgment
2 Leyline of Sanctity
3 Mana Leak
2 Mental Misstep
3 Oblivion Ring
4 Preordain
2 Ratchet Bomb
4 Spreading Seas
2 Torpor Orb

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
2 Sejiri Refuge
4 Tectonic Edge

Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
1 Consecrated Sphinx
1 Divine Offering
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
2 Flashfreeze
1 Jace Beleren
1 Psychic Barrier
1 Revoke Existence
1 Stoic Rebuttal
2 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins
1 Wurmcoil Engine[/deck]

MOCS 12: Quarterfinals sakurai vs kbr



sakurai - Splinter Twin

[deck]4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer
2 Spellskite

3 Dispel
2 Gitaxian Probe
2 Into the Roil
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
2 Twisted Image

3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard:
2 Combust
1 Dispel
2 Into the Core
2 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm[/deck]

kbr - Pyromancer Ascension

[deck]1 Consecrated Sphinx

4 Burst Lightning
2 Call to Mind
2 Foresee
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Into the Roil
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
1 Pyroclasm
4 Pyromancer Ascension

3 Halimar Depths
7 Island
1 Misty Rainforest
7 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard:
2 Azure Mage
1 Consecrated Sphinx
2 Flashfreeze
2 Negate
3 Pyroclasm
3 Spellskite
1 Sphinx of Jwar Isle
1 Torpor Orb[/deck]

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Draft #2: M12 UB

MOCS 12: Quarterfinals Gainsay vs millennium9999



Gainsay - UW Control

[deck]4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Glacial Fortress
6 Island
4 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Tectonic Edge

1 Cancel
4 Day of Judgment
2 Dismember
1 Elspeth Tirel
2 Gideon Jura
2 Gitaxian Probe
3 Into the Roil
4 Jace Beleren
1 Jace's Ingenuity
2 Karn Liberated
1 Leyline of Sanctity
4 Mana Leak
1 Mental Misstep
4 Preordain
1 Stoic Rebuttal
1 Timely Reinforcements

Sideboard:
2 Celestial Purge
2 Condemn
1 Dismember
3 Flashfreeze
2 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Mental Misstep
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Torpor Orb
1 Volition Reins[/deck]


millennium9999 - Monogreen

[deck]20 Forest
4 Misty Rainforest
24 lands

1 Acidic Slime
4 Dungrove Elder
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
2 Obstinate Baloth
3 Sylvan Ranger
3 Thrun, the Last Troll

3 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
2 Green Sun's Zenith
3 Overwhelming Stampede
2 Sword of War and Peace

Sideboard
3 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
4 Nature's Claim
2 Obstinate Baloth
4 Torpor Orb[/deck]

MOCS 12: Quarterfinals Jhun vs fugi1



Jhun - Monogreen

[deck]21 Forest
2 Tectonic Edge
4 Birds of Paradise

4 Dungrove Elder
3 Kozilek's Predator
4 Leatherback Baloth
4 Llanowar Elves
4 Nest Invader
3 Obstinate Baloth

2 Beast Within
3 Dismember
2 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Overwhelming Stampede

Sideboard:
3 Acidic Slime
1 Beast Within
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Dismember
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
3 Nature's Claim
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Sword of Body and Mind
2 Thrun, the Last Troll[/deck]


fugi1 - Splinter Twin

[deck]3 Arid Mesa
4 Halimar Depths
5 Island
3 Misty Rainforest
5 Mountain
4 Scalding Tarn

4 Deceiver Exarch
3 Grim Lavamancer

4 Dispel
2 Into the Roil
2 Mental Misstep
4 Ponder
4 Preordain
4 Shrine of Piercing Vision
2 Spell Pierce
4 Splinter Twin
3 Twisted Image

Sideboard:
2 Dragonmaster Outcast
3 Forked Bolt
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Mental Misstep
3 Mutagenic Growth
2 Negate
1 Spell Pierce
2 Steel Sabotage[/deck]

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Draft Structure Value by Winrate

Valakut Decktech

Review #1: Modern Daily Black Zoo

Daily #7: Standard Valakut







Testing: Valakut w/ Jarvis match 5









Daily #6: Modern Zoo w/ Black







Draft #1: M12 RG w/ Prolepsis

The audio improves after the first few minutes.





Daily #5: Pauper UR Post







Daily #4: Pauper UR Post + Decktech









Daily #3: Modern Zoo (Countercat)







Daily #2: Modern BWg







Daily #1: Modern BWg







Testing: Pyromancer Ascension